High-school students celebrated their graduation in Stockholm on Wednesday.
Photo: jessica gow/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesSTOCKHOLM—The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial decision to forgo a mandatory lockdown conceded for the first time that more restrictions might have helped prevent a surge in coronavirus-related deaths.
Sweden, which has kept its economy and society open throughout the pandemic, is seen as a model by U.S. and European critics of restrictions, who argue the lockdowns have unnecessarily harmed economies.
But while factories and businesses, including bars and restaurants, remained open in Sweden, the country has seen far more Covid-19-related deaths than most of its neighbors and its death rate is now one of the highest in the world.
Meantime, Sweden’s export-reliant economy suffered as trading partners shut down. Its central bank estimates that Sweden’s gross domestic product will contract by as much as 10% this year and unemployment will reach as high as 10.4%.
The fallout could worsen as some of Sweden’s neighbors, including Denmark, have started reopening their borders to other European countries but not to Sweden because of its persistently high infection numbers.
Picnickers in Tantolunden park in Stockholm on Saturday.
Photo: Henrik Montgomery/Tt/Zuma PressAfter weeks of domestic debate about the merits and risks of the country’s light-touch approach, chief government epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said the strategy should have been more restrictive and closer to that of other countries.
“If we encountered the same disease, knowing what we know today, I think we would end up doing something in the middle between what Sweden did, and what the rest of the world did,” Dr. Tegnell told national radio broadcaster Sveriges Radio on Wednesday.
As of Wednesday, 4,542 people in Sweden had died from Covid-19, according to Sweden’s public health agency. The country has among the highest per capita mortality rates in the world with over 43.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, far higher than in neighboring Denmark, Finland and Norway, with 9.9, 5.8 and 4.4 deaths per 100,000, respectively, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The Swedish Health Ministry and Mr. Tegnell didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
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Following guidance from Dr. Tegnell and his team, Stockholm introduced voluntary guidelines for social distancing and very few enforceable rules. Those include a ban on events involving 50 participants or more and an order for bars and restaurants to serve drinks only at tables to avoid crowding at the bar.
Many Swedes, especially those facing higher risks such as the elderly and people with underlying conditions, adhered to the guidelines and the rate of infection slowed down. Swedish hospitals operate below capacity, with some minor but manageable pressures on services in the capital, according to medical authorities.
A DN/Ipsos opinion poll published May 2 found that 69% of respondents had confidence in Mr. Tegnell and 11% didn’t.
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The virus entered the system of nursing homes for the elderly and caused a spike in deaths. According to the government, nearly 50% of Covid-19-related deaths have occurred in homes for the elderly.
Paulina Neuding, a publisher and commentator, said Dr. Tegnell and his team finally seemed to realize that their strategy had failed, as predicted by some international experts.
“But their admission is of little value as long as Sweden doesn’t change its course.” Ms. Neuding said. “Mr. Tegnell still refuses to admit that the Swedish strategy was based on scientifically incorrect assumptions, and that other countries did better because they chose a better strategy based on data that were already available at the time.”
Dr. Tegnell maintained that voluntary social distancing was the correct course of action to ensure businesses could remain open and the health system wasn’t overwhelmed, while potentially creating mass coronavirus immunity in the long run.
“There’s potential to improve upon what we have done in Sweden, of course,” Mr. Tegnell said.
Write to Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com
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