AJ Dillon is set to be an unrestricted free agent and his future with the Green Bay Packers is unknown. But whether it’s Dillon or someone else, general manager Brian Gutekunst wants a Dillon-like presence behind Aaron Jones.
“I do think we would always like to have one power, bigger back on the roster for short-yardage situations and playing in the weather and closing out games,” Gutekunst said via Packers.com.
When the weather begins to turn in Green Bay is when Dillon has been at his best. To put it simply, he’s more difficult to tackle in the frigid winter weather with his size and strength.
Since the 2020 season, Dillon is averaging 3.9 yards per rush in the months of September and October but 4.4 yards per carry in November and December, according to Pro Football Reference.
“I think we all can see it and the results kind of speak for themselves,” Matt LaFleur said following the Packers win over Kansas City. “Over the last couple years, he’s been pretty effective later in the season.”
As Gutekunst also mentioned, there is something to be said for having a big back to lean on at the end of games when defenses are more tired, resulting in more yards, the chains being moved, and the clock winding down.
There is certainly value that Dillon or another back with a similar skill set can provide, but what the Packers also need to find is more playmaking ability in that second running back role.
While Dillon provided reliability, he was also limited when it came to creating big plays. Dillon finished the 2023 season averaging just and had just four games where he averaged more than 4.0 yards per attempt.
Dillon had the 25th most rushing attempts through Week 17 but would rank 41st in missed tackles forced, 47th in rushes of 10-plus yards, and 46th in average yards after contact—which is supposed to be his calling card as a bigger running back.
The success Dillon had was often dictated by how well the offensive line created running lanes for him. Early season struggles in 2023 were also a product of Dillon overthinking, as running backs coach Ben Sirmans said, rather than playing freely.
Without a dynamic presence in the backfield when Jones isn’t on the field, that not only impacts the running game, but the passing game as well. On early downs, a failure to pick up more than a few years can put the offense behind the sticks and put them in obvious passing situations where the defensive front can pin its ears back.
It can also result in the defense dropping more defenders into coverage if they don’t respect the run game, which of course, makes moving the ball through the air more difficult. The Packers inability to move the ball on the ground consistently early on in the year was a major contributor to the offense’s overall issues.
The Packers are going to continue to be mindful of Jones’ workload so they have him for the duration of the season. This means the second running back is going to continue to play a significant role.
Returning for 2024 the Packers have Emanuel Wilson who will be back as an exclusive rights free agent and Ellis Merriweather, a practice squad player from last season.
The ideal player to fill this role for the Packers — and a pipe dream — is free agent Derrick Henry, but that probably isn’t realistic either. PFF projects that Henry will sign a two-year $20 million deal with $13 million guaranteed.
More than likely, the Packers will address running back in the draft, where there is good depth in the middle rounds. Brennen Rupp of Packers Wire mentions Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen, Notre Dame’s Audric Estime, South Dakota State’s Isaiah Davis, Washington’s Dillon Johnson, and Alabama’s Jace McClellan as five players who fit the mold of what Gutekunst is looking for.
Between Jordan Love and a plethora of receivers, the Packers have a dynamic passing game, but in order to truly unlock this offense, they will need to a pair a strong running game with it, and that means having a playmaking presence behind Jones, regardless of the measurables that player possesses.
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February 28, 2024 at 05:07AM
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