The numbers behind the Knicks thrashing of the Wizards - Bullets Forever

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What should we take from preseason exhibition games? If you answer anything other than “very little” or “almost nothing,” you’re wrong.

This would be the case, even if the Wizards played well, which they decidedly did not. They got spanked by the New York Knicks, 117-99, and the game wasn’t that close. But remember, it’s preseason and there’s little to take from any single game.

That said, while there’s little that’s actually meaningful, there are indicators and signs that warrant observation. Like, for a second straight preseason game, the Wizards’ defense was subpar. They allowed the Knicks a 59.5% effective field goal percentage, and their overall defensive rating (111) was buoyed by New York’s inability to control the basketball (18 turnovers). It would be challenging to assert that the Wizards forced 18 Knicks turnovers.

The Wizards efg was just 41.0% (abysmal), and they committed 10 turnovers of their own. Ugh.

According to my PPA metric, Montrezl Harrell was good, and Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie, Daniel Gafford, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Raul Neto were decent. The rest? Meh and worse.

Below are the four factors that decide who wins and loses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

I’ve simplified them a bit. While the factors are usually presented as percentages, that’s more useful over a full season. In a single game, the raw numbers in each category are easier to understand.

PACE is possessions per 48 minutes.

Wizards 99 at Knicks 117

FOUR FACTORS	KNICKS	WIZARDS
FOUR FACTORS	KNICKS	WIZARDS
EFG	0.595	0.410
OREB	5	6
TOV	18	10
FTM	17	26
PACE	105
ORTG	111	94

Player Production Average (PPA) is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls). PPA is a per possession stat that includes accounting for defense and role. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better.

The table below is sorted by each player’s total contributions for the game.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 112.3.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are slightly modified versions of stats created by now-Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified slightly by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

Wizards PPA

WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	+/-
WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	+/-
Montrezl Harrell	22	48	18	127	31.9%	216	-3
Bradley Beal	25	56	14	92	27.8%	116	-11
Spencer Dinwiddie	22	48	13	114	23.9%	115	-2
Daniel Gafford	22	48	7	99	11.9%	113	-15
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	20	43	4	81	13.4%	112	-17
Raul Neto	16	34	10	126	21.7%	120	-21
Jordan Schakel	3	7	5	224	32.2%	489	3
Anthony Gill	6	12	2	193	6.4%	146	7
Isaiah Todd	8	16	2	0	11.4%	110	4
Davis Bertans	16	35	8	0	22.9%	21	-14
Deni Avdija	16	36	4	82	12.7%	11	-2
Jay Huff	3	6	0	#DIV/0!	0.0%	53	-1
Jordan Goodwin	5	11	4	97	30.2%	-34	-2
Jaime Echenique	4	9	0	34	20.4%	-67	0
Kyle Kuzma	24	54	4	48	14.5%	-47	-8
Corey Kispert	13	30	2	32	16.3%	-109	-6
Aaron Holiday	15	33	2	39	22.1%	-113	-2

Knicks PPA

KNICKS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	+/-
KNICKS	MIN	POSS	PTS	ORTG	USG	PPA	+/-
Derrick Rose	19	42	15	138	30.4%	469	20
Kevin Knox II	20	44	12	147	14.8%	261	8
Jericho Sims	26	58	7	118	11.4%	173	15
Obi Toppin	28	62	13	96	18.9%	112	10
Quentin Grimes	2	4	6	287	40.1%	1763	6
Evan Fournier	25	55	14	117	20.7%	94	2
Taj Gibson	22	47	8	108	11.5%	68	3
RJ Barrett	31	69	18	92	26.8%	28	2
Immanuel Quickley	20	44	11	107	21.4%	40	13
Kemba Walker	21	46	6	80	18.7%	10	6
Miles McBride	3	6	0	232	4.5%	0	1
Alec Burks	23	51	7	65	20.1%	-33	4

On the bright side, it’s unlikely the Wizards will get torched by Kevin Knox again. On the pessimistic side, they got lit up by Kevin Knox!

Anyway, it’s preseason. It doesn’t mean much of anything. At least that’s what the Wizards have to be hoping.

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The numbers behind the Knicks thrashing of the Wizards - Bullets Forever
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