Survey results of Virginia voters indicate that Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin beat former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by peeling away key voter groups that a year ago favored President Biden.
The economy and jobs were at the top of mind in an electorate where a slight majority disapprove of the president and an even larger group feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. The political newcomer also appeared to strike the right tone by accepting former President Donald Trump’s endorsement but not campaigning...
Survey results of Virginia voters indicate that Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin beat former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by peeling away key voter groups that a year ago favored President Biden.
The economy and jobs were at the top of mind in an electorate where a slight majority disapprove of the president and an even larger group feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. The political newcomer also appeared to strike the right tone by accepting former President Donald Trump’s endorsement but not campaigning alongside him. Mr. Trump lost the state by 10 percentage points last year.
Here are some of the key takeaways from Tuesday night’s results of AP VoteCast, a survey taken from Oct. 27 through Election Day of 2,655 registered voters.
A Youngkin Coalition
College-educated white men, people from small towns and rural areas and older voters made up key parts of Mr. Youngkin’s winning coalition. Notably, Mr. Youngkin had a slight edge with college-educated white voters, a group that favored Mr. Biden by 11 percentage points in last year’s VoteCast survey.
Overall, Mr. Youngkin won among white voters in the state by a much higher spread than Mr. Trump’s six-point margin with that group last year. The survey also suggests that Latino voters favored Mr. Youngkin over Mr. McAuliffe, though the sample size of the group was much smaller than for white and Black voters.
The Economy Is King
More than a third of Virginia voters said the economy and jobs were the most important issues in the state as the U.S. faces higher inflation and employers are fiercely competing for workers in a tight job market.
Notably, the Covid-19 pandemic, which was the top issue in the state in the 2020 election survey, was second. Education, which Mr. Youngkin put at the center of his campaign in the final weeks leading up to Election Day, was third, topping healthcare.
Presidential Job Approval
In a state where Mr. Biden beat Mr. Trump by 10 percentage points, a majority of voters in Tuesday’s election disapproved of the current president’s performance. Nearly two-thirds of voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Youngkin and Trump
Voters were divided on Mr. Youngkin’s support of Mr. Trump, with a narrow majority saying he backed the former president just the right amount or not enough. Those voters went heavily toward the Republican nominee.
A note from the Associated Press about AP VoteCast: AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and the Associated Press. In the 2021 Virginia election for governor, AP VoteCast combines interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files with self-identified registered voters selected using nonprobability approaches.
Interviews are conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents may receive a small monetary incentive for completing the survey. Participants selected as part of the random sample can be contacted by phone, text and mail and can take the survey by phone or online. Participants selected as part of the nonprobability sample complete the survey online.
The survey of 2,655 registered voters between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2, 2021, concluding as polls close on Election Day. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. As with all surveys, AP VoteCast is subject to multiple sources of error, including from sampling, question wording and order, and nonresponse.
Write to Brian McGill at Brian.McGill@wsj.com and Chad Day at Chad.Day@wsj.com
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Behind the Numbers of the Virginia Gubernatorial Election - The Wall Street Journal
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