Pitching stats can be overwhelming, but the Atlanta Braves have one that really stands out among the chaos.
If you look at the myriad of fangraphs’ stats, it’s easy to see that there are tons of ways to look at pitching.
You might just choose to look at strikeouts… one of the higher-profile numbers for pitchers. The Atlanta Braves, thanks mostl
y to the recent dominance of Spencer Strider, lead the majors with a rate of 9.71 K’s per 9 innings.
But that — while useful — is often just a “window-dressing” stat. The Chicago White Sox rank 4th in K-rate… and their team record is 39-43 entering play today.
Heck, the lowly Reds are tenth in the majors with their pitching strikeout rate… and just 0.04 behind the 6th-ranked Padres. But their team ERA is 5.34. So no… strikeouts are great, but they don’t always translate to run-prevention.
Thus the stat I wish to highlight here might not be that obvious: it’s the team’s homer rate allowed.
As of this morning, the Braves are allowing an average of 0.82 home runs per game (9 innings). This leads the majors in the important category of keeping the baseball in the park.
It might add to the context, though, to let you know just how much this number has changed this season as compared to recent years:
- 2022: 0.82
- 2021: 1.17 (MLB rank: 10th)
- 2020: 1.18 (5th [covid year])
- 2019: 1.26 (8th)
- 2018: 0.95 (3rd)
- 2017: 1.20 (13th)
So while you can see that the Braves have consistently done well here, they have cranked it up a notch this season.
You might be thinking “But homers are down this year anyway.” Yes… that’s true: teams are averaging 1.098 dingers per 9 innings overall. That’s down from 1.255 in 2021… a difference of 12.5%.
The improvement from the Braves’ staff, however, is at 30%… they are outperforming the league significantly.
What’s the reason?
You’ve got a staff that generally pitches to weaker contact… opponents average an exit velocity of 88.1 mph — good for 7th in baseball (the Dodgers are 1st at 87.3). This allows the Braves’ defense to make plays and make more outs (especially now that the defense has been shored up significantly over the past 5-6 weeks).
The Braves also allow a lower percentage of barreled-up baseballs that any team except the Yankees. This leads directly to fewer homers… and means that the outfield defense can have a chance to help out.
It doesn’t seem to matter about style, either: whether we’re talking about Kyle Wright and Max Fried and their breaking stuff or Spencer Strider and his lively fastball. Hitters aren’t comfortable in the box against this staff, and these numbers show it.
It’s also notable that these numbers are for the entire pitching staff and for the entire year… including the relievers and also including the period of time when the starters were struggling to find themselves early on.
In other words… this HR rate thing is probably not a fluke… despite Juan Soto’s big fly early in today’s game :).
If that’s so… this pitching staff will keep our Atlanta Braves into games for the rest of the season while the offense continues to do its thing. That bodes well for the rest of the Summer.
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July 10, 2022 at 04:29AM
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The real secret behind the Atlanta Braves’ pitching success - Tomahawk Take
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