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California falls behind in home-price gains - OCRegister

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The “Looking Glass” ponders economic and real estate trends through two distinct lenses: the optimist’s “glass half-full” and the pessimist’s “glass half-empty.”

Buzz: Last year’s wild surge in the value of California homes trailed eye-popping gains elsewhere in the nation.

Source: Zillow calculations of rising home values in states and the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas — including six in California. This math includes all homes, not just those that sold, plus appreciation as well as the addition of newly constructed residences. The data goes from last year’s pandemic-fired feeding frenzy back to 2011, the early days of the post-Great Recession recovery.

Debate: Home values are a depending-on-your-view metric. Homeowners, especially those who are sellers, naturally see rising home value as good news.

However, house hunters — while often lured to ownership by profit potential — have a far different view. Housing inflation makes the finances of a purchase even more challenging.

Glass half-full

Owners were the winners of 2021. In California, values grew by $1.38 trillion to $9.24 trillion. Note: This 17.6% jump was only the No. 22-largest surge among the states.

And look at 2021 percentage gains in home values for metropolitan areas, three of six California markets ranked in the top half of nation’s big 50 …

San Diego: Up $196 billion to $910 billion, a gain of 27% — the seventh-biggest surge of the 50.

Inland Empire: Up $134 billion to $700 billion, a gain of 24% — No. 14.

Sacramento: Up $85 billion to $469 billion, a gain of 22% — No. 17.

San Jose: Up $121 billion to $867 billion, a gain of 16% — the No. 32 ranked surge.

Los Angeles-Orange County: Up $431 billion to $3.27 trillion, a gain of 15% — the No. 38 ranked surge.

San Francisco: Up $228 billion to $1.95 trillion, a gain of 13% — the No. 44 ranked surge.

Glass half-empty

But over the previous nine years, California gains were smaller but ranked far higher on the national scoreboard.

California values averaged $460 billion in annual value increases in 2011-2020, growth equal to 8.7% a year — the nation’s eighth-fastest surge.

And every California metro was in the top half of the national rankings …

Sacramento: $25 billion average gains from 2011-2020, an annualized growth rate of 10.3% — the fifth-biggest surge of the 50.

San Jose: $47 billion a year, No. 9 growth of 9.9%.

San Francisco: $108 billion a year, No. 11 growth of 9.7%.

Inland Empire: $35 billion a year, No. 13 growth of 9.3% annualized.

San Diego: $43 billion a year, No. 20 growth of 9%.

L.A.-O.C: $160 billion a year, No. 23 growth of 8.1%.

Bottom line

California housing gains being outpaced by many U.S. markets last year modestly narrows the affordability gaps between regions. But is this “underperformance” — that assumes rising values are good —  a sign of California economic stress or falling desirability of the state as a place to be a homeowner?

Jonathan Lansner is business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

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California falls behind in home-price gains - OCRegister
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