Tropical Depression Fred weakened to a tropical wave Saturday, but forecasters expected the remnants to reform in the Gulf of Mexico and still dump heavy rain on the Tampa Bay area Sunday as the system crawls north before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle Monday.
The tropical system’s forecast track shifted dramatically to the west on Saturday and a tropical storm warning that had been issued for the Florida Keys was canceled.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will survey Fred tonight to see how the storm’s redevelopment has progressed.
Fred’s maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts, as of the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory.
Forecasters said Tampa Bay could receive a few inches of rain and said they would continue to monitor the system for possible tornadoes as rain bands were expected to begin moving through the area late Saturday.
The mountainous regions of Hispaniola and Cuba weakened Fred from a depression to a tropical wave on Saturday. The system is also dealing with high wind shear and rapid change of wind speed and direction.
“The system’s been in an environment that’s not been very favorable from the start,” said meteorologist Austen Flannery at the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
As of Saturday evening, the risk for Tampa Bay was much lower than in previous forecasts as Fred’s path shifted farther west.
Fred was off the coast of Cuba as of an 8 p.m. update from the National Weather Service. Portions of the northern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle, are at risk of tropical storm conditions beginning Monday.
The storm is expected to curve toward the northwest Saturday night through Sunday. A turn toward the north is expected Monday.
“A storm tends to curve earlier. But because it’s remained so weak and disorganized, it’s continued to be kind of at the mercy of the prevailing winds,” Flannery said. “So that’s why it will continue to drift more west as opposed to turning more north or northwest like it was expected to do sooner.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday issued a state of emergency for 23 counties: Bay, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsdsen, Gilchrist, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Manatee, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Taylor, Wakulla, Walton and Washington.
Tampa Bay can still expect a soggy weekend, with the National Hurricane Center saying heavy rainfall could lead to minor or isolated moderate flooding in some parts of the state. Next week is also expected to be a wet one.
There’s also a new storm in the Atlantic Ocean for Floridians to watch.
Tropical Storm Grace formed early Saturday, becoming the seventh named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center projects the system could impact Florida late next week. Tampa Bay is currently within its four- to five-day path — but there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
Grace was moving toward the west at 23 mph, as of the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. update. The tropical storm is expected to pass over the Leeward Islands on Saturday night before going over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday and the Dominican Republic on Monday, the Hurricane Center said.
Haiti, which was rocked by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake Saturday, could also be affected by the storm on Monday night.
The National Hurricane Center noted Grace was not well organized. Grace is forecast to strengthen in the next few days but could weaken as it goes over the islands in the Caribbean Sea.
The tropical storm’s sustained speed was near 40 mph with high gusts at 8 p.m.
Grace is projected to go through a similar path as Fred, which could provide a “snapshot of the sorts of challenges Grace is going to face in terms of development,” Flannery said.
Though conditions haven’t been favorable for Fred and Grace, Flannery said, the storms are a reminder that this is an active time of the year for hurricanes and tropical storms and now is the time to make sure you have an emergency plan in place.
Tampa Bay Times reporter Michaela Mulligan contributed to this story.
Editor’s note: As a public service, the Tampa Bay Times is making its storm coverage free to readers as long as the region is threatened by Fred’s path. To help us continue keeping you informed, please consider supporting us with a subscription or donating to our journalism fund.
• • •
2021 Tampa Bay Times hurricane guide
IT’S STORM SEASON: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane
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NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter
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As Fred weakens, Tropical Storm Grace follows behind - Tampa Bay Times
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