Beryl to reach southwest Gulf this weekend, tracking Invest 96L behind it - WLOX

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SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) - The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is tracking Hurricane Beryl as it brings hurricane conditions to Jamaica tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands by early Thursday and the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Meanwhile Invest 96L continues to track west behind Beryl and has a low chance for organizing into a tropical system over the next two to seven days.

There are no imminent threats to South Mississippi at this time.

National Hurricane Center 10 p.m. advisory for Hurricane Beryl(WLOX)

Caribbean cruiser: where is Beryl headed?

After a stop near Jamaica, Beryl will continue cruising west towards the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Fluctuations in strength are likely along its track due to wind shear and interaction with land.

A landfall in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is forecast by Friday, then is expected re-emerge over the southwestern Gulf (Bay of Campeche) by this weekend as a tropical storm.

The same ridge of high pressure over South Mississippi that is causing excessive heat will be the same feature that steers Beryl west into the Bay of Campeche.

However, the ridge of high pressure is expected to break down and slide east as a trough digs in from the north around that time.

This could allow Beryl to curve north towards Mexico or the Texas coast.

Beryl is expected to race across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche (BOC) by Friday night. Once Beryl makes it there, the ridge of high pressure steering it west will slide east. At the same time a dip in the jet stream called a trough will try to draw Beryl north west. How far north it goes depends on it's location in the BOC. If it is far enough north, it could feel the trough more and get tugged closer to Texas. If it is too far south, the ridge will continue to steer it west. Overall, still something to monitor. Concern level for South Mississippi is low.(WLOX)

Hurricane Hunters flying through the center of the storm found winds sustained near 165 mph earlier this week, making it a category five storm. The storm has weakened since.

Beryl is the earliest category five hurricane on record, beating the old record set over two weeks later by Hurricane Emily on July 17, 2005. In addition, Beryl now holds the record for strongest July hurricane by wind speed, also beating Hurricane Emily which had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Beryl also holds the record for the strongest June hurricane.

Beryl made landfall Monday morning on Carriacou Island, an island of Grenada, as a category four hurricane with maximum sustained winds near the center of 150 mph - the strongest Hurricane to make landfall on the island.

Hurricane Beryl sets several early-season intensity records(WLOX)

Beryl is the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and formed about 6 weeks before the first hurricane typically forms in the Atlantic. It also became a major hurricane about two months before the first major hurricane typically forms - which is around September 1.

Tropical Storm Chris formed briefly on June 30th and dissipated after making landfall north of Veracruz, Mexico. Typically, the third named storm of the season does not occur until about August 3.

Three named storms have formed so far this season. Typically, the third named storm does not occur until Aug 3.(WLOX)

Typical dates in which tropical systems develop throughout hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.(WLOX)

Alberto & Chris were short-lived systems that made landfall in Mexico. Beryl has had a long track from the Atlantic through the Caribbean, as of July 3.(WLOX)

Hurricane Season 2024 is off to an above-normal start with three named storms so far.(WLOX)

Tropical wave Invest 96L could become a depression or tropical storm in the coming days as it heads west through the Caribbean behind Beryl. The wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean by the end of this weekend as it is steered by a ridge of high pressure to the north.

Early indications are that 96L may struggle to develop as it is influenced by wind shear caused by the outflow from Hurricane Beryl.

However, conditions may become more favorable once 96L reaches the western Caribbean. Some models continue to track 96L towards the southern or southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

It is too soon to say exactly where 96L will track or how organized it will become. Keep checking back in for updates.

The next available name on the list is Debby.

A ridge of high pressure will steer 96L into the western Carribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this coming weekend or early next week. Wind shear and dry air will make it difficult for it to develop. However, conditions could become more favorable over the coming days.(WLOX)

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Beryl to reach southwest Gulf this weekend, tracking Invest 96L behind it - WLOX
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