Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States is pushing hard for a COVID-19 vaccine, Turkey is conducting military operations deep inside Iraq, and anti-Putin protests flare in eastern Russia.
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The United States Makes a Major Investment in a COVID-19 Vaccine
The U.S. government has reached a $1.95 billion deal to purchase 100 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine being developed jointly by Pfizer and the German firm BioNTech, one of the largest single investments in a vaccine to date. The vaccine will be administered in two doses, so the initial agreement will cover the inoculation of 50 million people, contingent on the Food and Drug Administration determining that it is safe and effective. The agreement also allows for an additional 500 million doses at the beginning of 2021.
Reason for optimism. The deal represents a major push in the search for a vaccine, and it opens a wealth of resources to one of the world’s most promising candidates. Pfizer and BioNTech administered the first tests of the vaccine in April, and a Pfizer statement earlier this week said the initial results were positive. But the vaccine is still in a relatively early stage of testing and the initial results have not yet been published in a medical journal, meaning several more rounds of positive testing are required before the vaccine reaches the public.
While this does give the United States some advantage toward rolling out the world’s first vaccine, it still lags behind other more advanced efforts. The University of Oxford’s joint initiative with the multinational pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has a vaccine in Phase 3 of testing.
Something bigger? The investment comes as the Trump administration has been scrambling to restore its image after its failure to take effective measures to counteract the spread of the virus badly damaged its credibility. The Pfizer/BioNTech investment is part of Operation Warp Speed, a major initiative by the Trump administration to develop and roll out a vaccine by January 2021.
But still a ways to go. Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s emergencies programme, has urged caution over growing optimism, saying that despite “good progress” being made, a viable vaccine will unlikely be available until early 2021. “Realistically it is going to be the first part of next year before we start seeing people getting vaccinated,” Ryan said.
What We’re Following Today
Boris on the defensive. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government is under fire after a recently published parliamentary report suggested that the government did not act quickly enough to investigate claims that Russia may have interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum. During a subsequent debate in Parliament, Johnson outright rejected the notion that Russian interference tipped the scales in favor of Brexit, and further denied that the government balked at investigating Russia. As FP’s Amy Mackinnon writes, the report notes that the issue of protecting the integrity of British elections had become a “hot potato” with no one government ministry or intelligence agency taking the lead.
Tensions escalate. U.S.-Chinese relations continue to deteriorate. On Tuesday, the Trump administration ordered the closure of a Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas, which members of the administration claim is a response to widespread suspicion that the Chinese government is using the office to carry out espionage activities in the United States. The move threatens a major diplomatic row between the world’s two largest economies. China called it an “unprecedented escalation” of tensions, and has threatened retaliation.
Sources told Reuters that the Chinese government was considering ordering the closure of the U.S. consulate in Wuhan. How China chooses to retaliate could determine whether the situation spirals, FP’s Robbie Gramer and Amy Mackinnon report.
Turkey’s quiet offensive. Turkish forces have moved deep into Iraqi territory in an effort to root out Kurdish militants, who the government claim use northern Iraq as a staging post for operations inside Turkey. Although Turkish troops have been in northern Iraq for some time, the government recently adopted a more aggressive approach, seeking “to destroy the threat from where it begins.” As part of the campaign–dubbed Operation Claw Tiger–Turkey has advanced 25 miles inside the Iraqi border and established 30 military bases. The operation could serve as the prelude to further incursions into Iraq.
Looking for a way out. On Wednesday, Russian, Ukrainian, and international actors agreed to a cease-fire between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian paramilitaries in eastern Ukraine, effective July 27, in an effort to bring an end to the 6-year-old war in the country. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s press office, the ceasefire is comprehensive and, if observed by the pro-Russian side, could lead to the full implementation of the Minsk accords, which are considered the basis for a peaceful resolution to the conflict as they pave the way for the reintegration of the breakaway republics back into Ukraine.
Keep an Eye On
Breaking with the past. Political instability continues to threaten the Ivory Coast. On Wednesday, Marcel Amon-Tanoh, the country’s former foreign minister and long-time ally of President Alassane Ouattara, broke with the ruling RHDP alliance and announced he would stand in the country’s presidential election in October. Amon-Tanoh’s announcement comes as Ouattara’s handpicked successor, Prime Minister Gon Coulibaly, suddenly died. Amon-Tanoh will reportedly establish a new political party to challenge Ouattara and the RHDP.
Unrest continues in Russia. Anti-government protests continued in Russia’s eastern region of Khabarovsk on Tuesday after President Vladimir Putin’s new appointee for regional governor, Mikhail Degtyaryov, refused to step down amid growing tension with the federal government. Protests first erupted in Khabarovsk after Sergei Furgal, the region’s hugely popular former governor, was arrested on July 9 on charges that protesters are claiming were politically motivated.
Furgal’s 2018 electoral victory over the Putin favorite was considered a sharp rebuke of government policy in the region, and some observers believe his arrest was the government’s attempt to undo that defeat.
Odds and Ends
Wall of moms. Amid the melee of activity surrounding the unrest in Portland, Oregon, over the killing of George Floyd, hundreds of local mothers have decided to take action. Dubbing themselves the “Wall of Moms,” they have taken to the streets each night to form a human barricade to protect Black Lives Matters protesters against the aggressive tactics of federal agents. Slogans used by the group include “Feds stay clear, moms are here” and “I’m so disappointed in you -mom.”
That’s it for today.
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